You and Your Odds

70 Steps to a Positive Cryonics Outcome

Attempts to calculate the chances of successful cryopreservation seem to recur every few years, like reflux that resists digestive biochemistry. The most recent regurgitation, by my old friend Max More, retreats to the safe distance provided by an academic overview, but is inconclusive, and its assessment includes calculations which I feel are a bit out-of-date.

For instance, when Max reiterates the chain of probabilities calculated by Steve Harris, he doesn’t mention Harris’s current outlook on the topic.

“I wrote that document more than thirty years ago,” Harris told me, with a laugh, when I called him. “Back in the days when Mike Darwin was still working at Alcor. And the flaw in it. which I did not see then but I see now, is that cryonics is a social system which is basically unstable.”

I share his skepticism, but would express it a bit more directly. 

On one hand, cryonicists have made spectacular achievements, such as perfecting CT scans of cryopreserved brains, safeguarding patients in the face of nightmare law suits, and pursuing research with results that were considered impossible by the Society of Cryobiology.

On the other hand, people in cryonics have made catastrophic hiring decisions, have funded dead-end ventures by wacky scientists (check online for the name “Olga Visser”), have pursued disastrous business ventures (see “Cells4Life”), and have suffered recurring bouts of lunatic optimism (then-CEO Jerry Lemler once told me he seriously believed the Ted Williams case at Alcor would bring in 10,000 new members).

The concept of “future history” was invented by Isaac Asimov, in his Foundation books. Asimov acknowledged that one heterodox individual could affect a mathematically calculated future scenario, but he never imagined a field in which almost all the individuals are heterodox.

So, I agree with Steve Harris: The human factor invalidates any attempt to calculate the odds of cryonics working. Also, many other unquantifiable factors can make a difference.

Max seems to acknowledge this when he finishes up: “We can form a better idea by considering the things that have to go right, or the things that could go wrong.”

Alas, he doesn’t get into the down-and-dirty details about what those “things” may be. Therefore, a former journalist such as myself has to come up with an actual list, based on my own experience during the past three decades, during which I helped to run three cryonics organizations and participated in more than 20 cases.

My list consists of 70 real-life factors, ranging from small-scale to macro-scale, and in many instances, just one factor can reduce your chances from indeterminate to near-zero. Occasionally, I have had the terribly depressing experience of seeing this happen.

After I complete my list, I will leave it to you to draw your own conclusions about the probability of success.

There is a catch, though: Anyone who has signed up for cryonics, or is even thinking of signing up, is a part of this picture. Your own actions (or inaction) may affect the outcome—and therefore, I will invite you to include yourself and re-evaluate the chances accordingly.

70 Steps to a Positive Outcome

a. Mode of Death

1. Your cause of death does not damage the brain (no tumors, strokes, major trauma, or dementia).

2. You don’t die in a remote location.

3. You don’t die alone.

4. If you die unexpectedly, your cryonics organization is notified immediately.

5. Your cause of death is natural, so there should be no demand for an autopsy.

6. You don’t die in a foreign country.

7. If you require standby-transport service, you have paid for it, and your organization is capable of providing it.

b. Standby-Transport Personnel

8. In a remote standby, the team leader is experienced and competent when dealing with doctors, relatives, local government agencies, morticians, airlines, hospital administrators, law enforcement, and nurses, any of whom may delay your treatment and relocation to the cryonics facility. The team leader has been trained in the special requirements and pitfalls associated with cryonics cases, which are quite different from emergency medicine.

9. People on the standby team behave in a professional manner. They do not alienate or antagonize anyone in authority by being argumentative, making legal threats, or promoting the concept of cryonics on an evangelical basis.

10. No one on the standby team interferes with medical treatment, impersonates a medical professional, or administers medications before death is pronounced.

11. No one gives hospice nurses, doctors, or other medical staff any reason to suspect that your death was hastened.

c. Standby-Transport Logistics

12. No other member of your cryonics organization dies at the very same time as yourself, creating a dilemma regarding allocation of resources.

13. The equipment deployed for your case is well designed and properly maintained.

14. Nothing fails. Tubing doesn’t develop leaks. Vehicles don’t break down.

15. A hospice nurse, doctor, or other qualified person is readily available to pronounce your death promptly.

16. You receive rapid cooling after pronouncement. An ice bath is available, with copious quantities of ice.

17. You are not exceptionally tall or obese, so you will fit into the bath.

18. You receive chest compressions.

19. You receive medications to mitigate blood clotting and post-ischemic injury.

20. No major errors of judgment occur. The ice bath doesn’t tip over. The transport vehicle isn’t towed away for a parking violation.

21. There are no power cuts, natural disasters, or Acts of God during the standby/transport phase of your procedures.

22. Your stabilization proceeds promptly, usually at a mortuary.

23. You are transported rapidly to your cryonics organization. There are no unexpected flight delays, traffic jams, or accidents.

d. Legalities

24. You have executed a document giving a trusted person durable power of attorney for health care. This person is totally trustworthy and shares your belief in cryonics or is genuinely committed to honor it on your behalf.

25. Your close family members do not interfere with standby procedures or hospital personnel.

26. Your will is properly executed and up-to-date.

27. Friends or relatives who would like to receive an inheritance do not resent you spending your money on cryonics.

28. You made your cryonics arrangements while in sound mind and without duress, before you acquired any terminal or life-threatening condition. 

29. Ideally you made a video of yourself expressing your wishes.

30. If a transit permit is required to move you out of the state in which you were pronounced, it is quickly and easily issued. You don’t die on a weekend.

31. The organization retains attorney(s) who can be paid to defend its right to preserve its patients.

e. Cryoprotective Perfusion

32. The organization is well prepared with sufficient vitrification solution and other consumables.

33. The organization has someone available who can perform surgical procedures competently.

34. The perfusion circuit has been set up without errors, and is primed.

35. Your circulatory system is robust and easily catheterized.

36. No blood clots interfere with perfusate reaching the brain.

37. The perfusate achieves target concentration uneventfully.

f. Long-Term Maintenance

38. Your cryonics organization has made necessary financial arrangements to pay for liquid nitrogen during the foreseeable future.

39. The organization has adequate funding for its day-to-day operations during the foreseeable future.

40. After you have been cryopreserved, no one challenges your wishes or demands that you should be exhumed.

41. The organization is properly protected against vandalism, arson, and other criminal acts. It has a sprinkler system and an alarm system.

42. The alarm system is reliable, is tested regularly, and triggers a rapid response.

43. The patient-care bay includes a low-oxygen-concentration alarm.

44. If you are in a dewar, it does not experience vacuum failure.

45. No significant industrial accidents occur in the building.

46. The organization can remain in its location indefinitely, without any need to relocate its patients.

47. The building is architecturally sound and in good repair.

48. There are no extreme weather events or earthquakes that endanger the building during your cryopreservation.

49. The organization operates in conformity with all local ordinances and regulations.

50. The organization complies with city, state, and federal tax codes.

51. Local government and/or local regulatory agencies are not infiltrated or taken over by person(s) hostile to cryonics. No one tries to legislate cryonics out of existence.

52. The socioeconomic state of the nation remains tolerably stable.

53. No major civic unrest, uprising, or crime wave occurs locally during your cryopreservation.

54. The supply of liquid nitrogen remains reliable and affordable.

55. During the years of your cryopreservation, the organization is not targeted by religious extremists, vengeful former employees, environmental activists, or other special-interest groups may challenge its right to exist.

56. The organization is not targeted for asset stripping, hostile takeover, or other actions that could destroy it financially.

57. The organization employs people who are competent, stable, and willing to remain in their jobs for the long term. It exercises due diligence when seeking new employees, and avoids hiring anyone who hopes to profit personally by exploiting cryonics.

58. The employees remain dedicated to the preservation of cryonics patients for the indefinite future.

g. Revival

59. During your cryopreservation, research continues into methods for repair and revival. It is well funded and pursued by smart, stable people of sound judgment. 

60. Methods are developed to rewarm a vitrified brain without causing irreparable ice damage.

61. The possibility of “bringing back the dead” does not cause significant social or religious backlash.

62. Molecular nanotechnology is developed.

63. Research determines that most memories can remain intact during repair of the brain.

64. Financial resources are sufficient to revive you.

65. You regain consciousness. Your cognition and memories are not impaired. Your vision, hearing, and other senses are functional.

66. Your physical condition is good. You are mobile and free from pain. 

67. The future world is a benign environment.

68. You are able to adapt to a future that is very different from the world you lived in previously.

69. The human race has maintained its dominant role, and has not been displaced by artificially intelligent entities, alien creatures, mutations, or other fatal threats.

70. The world remains free from nuclear warfare, biohazards, resource depletion, or environmental collapse.

Improving the Odds

In Max More’s essay, he mentions that he has never encountered anyone who believes there is a 100% certainty of revival from cryopreservation. I had a slightly different experience when I went to Laughlin, Nevada, and met Don Laughlin, who founded a casino there, and had the town named after him.

Currently Laughlin (the person) is valued around $1 billion. He makes no secret of his cryonics arrangements, and gave me an interview on this topic. Since he has made his fortune by assessing probabilities, I asked what he thought the odds were of revival from cryopreservation.

His answer is engraved in my memory. “It’s pretty much a done deal, isn’t it?” he said.

Not many people seem quite as confident as that. But I would say they act as if it is a done deal—as if executing some documents and making financial arrangements will address your little problem of mortality, and now you can go about your life as before.

This sanguine attitude ignores the realities that I have listed above. However, if you recognize the challenges, you can adjust the odds in your favor.

First, you can take basic precautions on a personal level. If you live with another person, consider enrolling in local EMT training or first-aid classes, together with that person. At the very least, you and your partner can learn how to do chest compressions. 

Obtain a vital-signs monitor that will dial a number if you experience a health emergency.

Contact your cryonics organization and tell them that you want to establish a relationship with a cooperative local mortician. If your organization is receptive to this idea, visit the mortician with literature from your organization and explain the steps that will be necessary if you die. Many morticians are actively interested in cryonics if it is explained to them, especially if they can make a little extra money by prioritizing your needs and responding rapidly. 

Try to get an appointment with your county coroner or medical examiner, to explain your desire for cryopreservation and your opposition to autopsy.

Carry a wallet card which gives the emergency number of your cryonics organization. The card should also state your opposition to autopsy, your request for rapid cooling and chest compressions, and perhaps a medication protocol after you are pronounced, especially using a blood thinner such as heparin, Ask your cryonics organization for details.

Make a video, while you are in good health, explaining your wish to be cryopreserved. Give copies of the video to your cryonics organization and to next-of-kin. A video in which you explain yourself calmly and factually is the most powerful evidence for your preferences. You cannot assume that people close to you will argue vigorously on your behalf after you are unable to argue for yourself.

Notify your cryonics organization if you develop a serious health condition, or if you will require any hospital procedure requiring anesthesia.

Finally, you may consider getting involved as an activist. Cryonics is still such a small field, each individual can make a difference. Ask your cryonics organization if it accepts help from volunteers, and tell them about any skills that you can offer. 

People may disagree about the odds of a successful cryopreservation, but everyone can agree that you have some ability to improve them.